My prediction is that a lot of college teams, and perhaps even OU, will return to the smash mouth run offense. I tell you why.
First, the west coast pass offense is old and stale. It's where the run option game was in the 80's when everyone was using it and became easy to defend against. Although I was glad to see a change to a more pass oriented offense in the 90's, I think it's time has passed. As everyone witnessed this year, most all the teams that used this style of offense did rather poorly.
Texas may be the one exception, although they seem to be using a much more balanced style of play, using the fullback more often with an older style of I-formation, but also using a pass-option style.
In other words, the west coast style of pass offense has become easy to defend against.
Secondly, most of the college players today do not remember or were not alive when the option offense was in full swing. A return to a more option oriented offense would throw a lot of teams off guard.
Thirdly, as has always been the case regardless of the type of offense used, the team that controls the clock generally controls the game. As you know, a run offense is much more time intensive than a pass offense.
The downside of course to a run style of offense is that it is very difficult to come back from behind if you are behind by more than two or three touchdowns. I am sure we can all remember some of those hairy OU games where we would get behind by 14 or 17 points and barely win the game, if we won at all.
Nonetheless, it is time for an offensive change in college ball; and after watching Georgia Tech, I think a triple option may be the way to go. This doesn't mean we would never pass, like the days of Switzer, but the pass would simply be one option out of say two or three.
Unfortunately because of new recruiting rules and the length of time it takes to impose such changes, we probably won't see such a major change until 2013 or 2014, but indeed I do believe we will see such a change.
What do you think?
4 comments:
I agree. Did you see Wisconsin vs. Miami? It was a case of spread against power run and power run dominated.
The problem with the run/option is what Georgia Tech found out last night and that is when a defense has outside speed, the running game has no chance on consistently gaining yards on the outside. What I thought was interesting was Wisconsin found this out quickly so they began running the over tackle runs to the left and right and just had Miami worn slick by the end of the game.
I think the position that needs to be brought back into more use, remembering all of the great OU and Nebraska teams utilized, is the fullback. When was the last time a team really used a bruising fullback as a runner? A team could be a great power running team with two rotating RB's, a fullback and a run/throw option at QB.
Although not a single head coach has called or even emailed requesting my opinion, so I should probably just keep it to myself and cheer for the Tide.
Switzer has two classic lines that sum it all up.
1. It's not the X's and O's but the Jimmies and Joes
2. Defense wins championships
The key for either the run option or West Coast is do you have the horses and can they execute.
The 49ers were unbeatable in the 80's running the West Coast to perfection while trotting out Montana, Rice, Rathman, Craig etc.
The best offense that ever put on cleats was the '95 Cornhuskers. They completed 6 passes and had more return yards than passing yards in the beat down they put on the Gators.
But regarding Switzer's second point, a great defense will always be the deciding factor. To stop the option you need big strong D linemen that bust through the line and fast linebackers and DB's that move side to side and keep the QB and RB's from turning the corner. Go back and watch those 80's Miami/OU games. OU couldn't get the outside and Jerome Brown and the boys plugged up the middle and shut the middle run game down.
Stoops has the perfect way to stop the WC offense. Bend but don't break. Give up the dinks and dunks but not the big play and more often then not you win, especially if you bow up in the red zone.
So there.
I think a hybrid of the spread/power game is what a lot of teams are looking to do. When you watch Alabama and Florida, they are both great at running the spread in some sets and power football once a lead is established.
If you look back at 2008 Oklahoma, they ran out of the I-Formation in a majority of their sets. Because they had such a dangerous quarterback and because they ran a no huddle, teams were never prepared when OU ran it up the middle or over tackle with Murray or Brown. OU could not repeat this success in 2009 due to the line being atrocious, but look for the Sooners to go back to that style in 2010.
I know this is not exactly where you guys are going, but it is where I see several teams trending. Say what you want about Wisconsin, but that team is simply terrible against good defenses. If you disagree, check their Big 10 record. While their offense is good in terms of ball control, it hampers them otherwise.
Well I certainly agree with lattehead about defense, and I haven't even got to what I think some teams need to do defensively. But as far as offense is concerned, I certainly feel like a change is a commin'.
Defensively speaking however, I go back to what I said about controlling the clock. The defense to be in top-notch shape should stay off the field as much as they can and in order to do this, the offense has to control the clock. A run offense is a good way to do this.
I also agree with waffleboy007 in that outside speed is certainly a consideration with the option. And I also agree that a return to an up the middle fullback would be a nice change. Remember Earl Campbell? It was like sending an elephant up the gut.
Whatever happens though, I still feel like the west coast days are coming to an end and within the next couple of seasons we will begin to see some changes offensively.
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